Introduction to translation
In their article published in the magazine "Foreign Averez", authors Michael Kimdge and Michael Kaufman are discussing Russian military preparations on the borders of Ukraine, and if Moscow is really preparing to use coarse power and invade a European country again.The two writers argue that in light of the interests of Moscow threatened in Ukraine and its desire to prove itself as a geopolitical player, in conjunction with the decline in American deterrence, the prospects for the war may not be far away in any way.
Translation
On the horizon, a Russian military attack in Ukraine is wrapped in this winter, as Moscow has strengthened the presence of its forces along the Ukrainian border over the past months, allowing it to pave the way for a military operation that resolves political blockage in Ukraine in its favor..Although Russian President "Vladimir Putin" used to waving the use of power tools in the diplomacy exhibition, Moscow appears to be more than hinting this time..If the parties to the crisis do not reach an agreement, the conflict fire may ignite on a large scale.
Let's ask why Putin may risk the heart of the table, geopolitically and economically, while he is benefiting from keeping the existing situation regionally as it is..Russia has acquired the Crimea in 2014 in one of the largest land extracts in Europe since World War II, and when the West imposed sanctions on Russia as a punishment for its conquest of Ukraine, it did not leave deep scars;Russia's total economy is still stable.Meanwhile, Moscow's hand holds the European energy market through the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline, which will be established from Germany's dependence on Russian natural gas, and the line appears to be on the way to operation despite several legal obstacles.In conjunction with this, the United States and Russia are currently having talks for strategic stability between them, as President Putin and Biden met last June in the midst of their efforts to build a more understandable relationship for the two countries..
However, from the bottom of that calm surface, there is a path that takes Russia and Ukraine towards the renewal of the unresolved conflict between them, which he can re -draw the map of Europe again, and spoils Washington its efforts to rationalize its relationship with Russia.Moscow has not lost its political influence in Ukraine year after year, as the government stood in Kyiv a decisive stance in the face of Russian demands last year, waving that it will not be acquired in order to reconcile its relations with Putin..As for the European countries, they appear supportive of the Ukrainian position, while Kyiv has expanded its security cooperation with the competitors of European Russia and the Americans..
In conjunction with this, Moscow has rebuilt its financial situation since the approval of Western sanctions on it in 2014, and it owns $ 620 billion in foreign cash reserves, and it has an exposed control over Europe this year specifically due to the high gas prices and the expected shortage of energy supplies.While Russia's political and economic confidence is growing, Washington's attention and allocating its resources to compete with China may have convinced Putin that Ukraine is now a marginal importance for the United States.
Russian leaders have declared that they were fed up with diplomacy, and that they see the increasing integration of Ukraine with the United States and NATO as something that cannot be tolerated, and then the theater is prepared for Moscow to reset the scales by force, unless it connects with Washington and Kiev to a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Drums
Russia's military position now does not suggest that the invasion is imminent, and may not have taken Moscow after the political decision to launch a military operation.However, Russian military activity in the past months greatly exceeds its usual training session, as the military units moved thousands of kilometers to the Western military province adjacent to Ukraine, and the rest of the army branches from the Caucasus sent their units to the Crimea..These are not normal training, but rather a clear effort to redistribute units and equipment for a possible military action.
What has changed over the past year to make these changes with him?First, the Russian strategy in Ukraine did not eat it with an acceptable political solution.After an electoral campaign in which he expressed an openness to the dialogue with Russia, the President of Ukraine turned the "Volodimer Zelinski" table on the possibility of reaching a solution with Russia a year ago in a way that dispelled the last hopes of achieving its goals by diplomacy.The talks between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France reached a dead end, and Moscow no longer saw a way to dismantle from Western sanctions, and then political and diplomatic efforts were scattered in this regard, while Moscow learned the science of certainty that it had previously won when it took the path of power.
At the same time, Ukraine began to deepen its partnerships with the United States, Britain and the rest of the NATO countries, and Washington provided a deadly military support to the Ukrainian army, which is a thorn in the back of Moscow, whose position has changed its position on the membership of Ukraine in NATO as a red line to reject the growing structural defense cooperationBetween Ukraine and the West altogether and in detail.The Russian leadership has stated its position using the most severe phrases over the past year, and warned its red lines in Ukraine, without seeing from the United States seriously to its speech..In October 2021, Putin indicated that Ukraine, and if she did not obtain official membership in NATO, "its military development on the ground is already underway, and it is a threat to Russia.".
Most likely these are not just words, as the Russian leadership does not see a horizon for a diplomatic solution, and you think that Ukraine is slowly attracted to the American security orbit, and it may believe this reason that the war is inevitable.The Russian leaders are certain that the use of force will not be easy or without consequences, but they see Ukraine in an unacceptable path, and therefore their options are limited to save their list previously, and even Russia's leaders may have reached the conclusion that resorting to the military option today will be less expensive thantomorrow.
The door of deadly diplomacy
Russia has achieved a strange victory during its attack on Ukraine in 2014-2015, and imposed unnoticed ceasefire agreements for Kiev.The Ukrainian army has developed a lot since then, but its Russian counterpart has also evolved, and the margin of quantitative and Russian style remains wide..However, the success of Russia on the battlefield has not been dedicated to a diplomatic success since then, as the "Minsk Protocol" that resulted in the war demonstrated that it was a losing agreement for both parties..
For its part, Ukraine did not prepare its sovereignty over its soil, and the United States and its European allies failed to force Russia to withdraw under the pressure of sanctions, despite their success in avoiding the exacerbation of the conflict between them and a major nuclear force.As for Russia, its influence was steadily diminished since 2015 - far from the lands it acquired or invaded - as Ukraine signed a partnership agreement with the European Union in 2014, which put it within the European legal system, which is the same result that Russia sought to prevent it from occurring.Kyiv has gone on to endeavor for NATO membership, and despite her lack of her current opportunities to enter the coalition, her cooperation with him is what is increasing.
Although Zellinski, the current president of Ukraine, nominated himself with a pledge to open the door for negotiations with Russia and tried to launch diplomatic dialogue already after entering his post, he changed his approach in 2020, closed the TV pro -Russia, and committed a strict mistake in rejecting Russian demands, and put his country onThe way towards "EUR), the term that the American diplomats tells of its use to describe the strategic Ukraine kiss away from Russia.Although the fighting in eastern Ukraine was declined after 2016, the conflict began to ripen over low heat, in fact hidden an unstable situation in the European continent..
Russia and the United States, whose circles of influence overlap in eastern Europe, are on both sides of the opposite of what Washington calls a "strategic competition", but the air between American sayings and actions in Ukraine and other countries open the door to exploiting that air before it is upset..The Syrian conflict has revealed the fascination of the American determination regarding its previously announced goal of the departure of "Assad", and Washington did not incur the trouble of facing the Russian military presence, and allowed Moscow to expand its influence in the Middle East and its offer.Meanwhile, the American chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan revealed, and what the Akos submarine agreement with Australia has raised by Australia because of its exclusion, about serious problems in coordination between the parties of the Atlantic Alliance..
While Washington appears to be exhausted by wars, Russia asks whether or not political support from Washington to Ukraine will be accompanied by real determination or not..And if Putin appears that the support of American officials for the Ukrainian land unit is pure words - and what is in fact that it is not pure words - it will proceed without deterrence in amending the regional powers balance using force.It will be foolish in a place for Putin to try to invade Ukraine in full, which is a huge country inhabited by more than 40 million people, but it will not be fictional for him to seek to divide it into two halves or to impose a settlement that stops the slide of Ukraine into the euro-NATO orbit.
Russia has always tried to review post -Cold War settlements.The goal of Moscow throughout this time was to restore a regional system in which both Russia and the West have the separation of equal degree of security in Europe..It is not likely that Putin believes the possibility of achieving a settlement such as those through traditional persuasion or diplomacy, while the Russian military action can frighten the major European countries enough to accept a new agreement with Moscow, especially since some of these countries see themselves and have become a second -class seatIn the American strategy, it is preferable to take a position in the center between China and the United States.Finally, none means that such a scenario is already likely, but it can be the possibility in the minds of Russian leaders now.
Stability from the mercy of the conflict
The United States can reach two conclusions of strengthening the Russian military presence near Ukraine, the first of which is that this military movement is not only a review of power.For Washington, the Persians is to prepare for the possibility of a war, and precautionary formats with its European allies, and to send clear messages to Moscow regarding the dire consequences to launch a military operation..And if the United States moves now, it will be able to work with European countries to raise the economic and political cost in front of Russian military action, and then reduce the possibility of war..
The failure to crystallize a coordinated reaction to the Russian attack was a tremendous loss to Ukraine in 2014, and it needed to drop Russia -backed separatists in July 2014 in order for Europe to be alert to the seriousness of the matter and the sanctions began to impose.While Washington probably wants to keep some of its options under the table, it must be explicitly announced on the general lines to support the sovereignty of Ukraine on its lands, and to do so before the outbreak of a major military conflict.This will need to be disclosed in detail about the resolve of the West and its red lines in the next few weeks.
Although "Victoria Noland", US Secretary of State for Political Affairs, described the United States' commitment to the sovereignty of Ukraine and its territorial integrity as a "iron commitment", the United States does not grant Ukraine any official security obligations to this day, not to mention that these statements are similar to a frightening political supportGeorgia announced before the last war with Russia in 2008 (in which Russia extracted two provinces of Georgia).It is not only that Russia will not deter these resonant diplomatic statements that lack credibility, but will try to undermine the reputation of the United States (in front of its allies) when Washington appears as an exerted force..
As for the second conclusion, it is that the United States and Europe must have frankly about the current diplomatic predicament, whether the war has already arose in the coming months or not.In any case, Russia is not in a state of geopolitical decline, and Ukraine does not intend to in turn to retract its position, and the continuation of the battle for influence in Ukraine will continue to be a wound that cannot be imprisoned, and it will get worse by cutting before it is healing.This does not deny the importance of searching for a diplomatic solution that reduces the risk of conflict out of control.
The ongoing conflict is the only source and the most prominent of the instability between the Russian and American powers, and the search for a strategic balance between the poles remains difficult while a conflict takes place at the same time..However, the competition between the two major nuclear powers has begun, which makes the search for strategic balance a necessity or imagination is a necessity.
_________________________________________________
Translation: Nour Khairi
This report is translated from Foreign Affairs and does not necessarily express the field of Maidan.